Category: Prime Politics Published on Monday, 01 July 2013 19:34 Written by Sharon Banks
Date: June28, 2013
Regarding: Poll Results– Likely Voters Detroit Mayoral Race
Mitchell Research and Communications, Inc. was commissioned by Turnaround Detroit to conduct a survey of likely voters in the City of Detroit’s mayoral race(N=511) to determine the viability of a write- in campaign for Mike Duggan. The results of the survey conducted June 25-26, 2013 show that there is strong support for Mike Duggan if he were to run as a write-in.
We initially asked a question about how the race stands now. In that question, we asked voters if they were voting for Tom Barrow, Krystal Crittendon, Lisa Howze, Benny Napoleon, someone else, or if they were not sure yet. We did not include the names of candidates who had less than 5% of the vote in previous polls we have conducted.Nor did we include anycandidates whowould nothave name identification among voters. Since previous surveys showed that there were only two strong candidates, Benny Napoleon and Mike Duggan, we first wanted to test Napoleon’s strength in a race without Duggan in it.
As one would expect, Benny Napoleon(32%), has more than three times the vote than his other closest competitors, Howze (9%), Barrow (11%), and Crittendon (8%). Another 25% said that they would vote for someone else while16% said they were undecided.
In order to gage the support a candidate, Mike Duggan, would have as a write-in, we asked the following question:
Because of a problem with his petitions, the courts ruled that Mike Duggan could not be a candidate for mayor. His supporters are urging Duggan to run as a write-in candidate.This means anyone wanting to vote for Duggan would have to take the time to write his name in on the ballot instead of putting a check next to the name of one of the other candidates. If the August Primary Election for mayor of Detroit was being held today and the candidates were Tom Barrow, Krystal Crittendon, Lisa Howze, Benny Napoleon, someone else, or you could write inthename ofMike Duggan, who would you vote for?
When included, Mike Duggan surges into the lead even after informing voters that they have to take the extra step of writing his name onto the ballot. The results of that question show Duggan (31%), Napoleon (26%), Barrow (10%), Howze (7%), Crittendon (7%),other (11%) and 8% of voters were not sure yet.
We also tested how Duggan would do if he was one of the two finalists running in the November General Election against Napoleon. In that trial ballot test, Duggan led Napoleon 40%-39% and in the final ballot test, Duggan led Napoleon 41%-35%.
These results show that if voters become aware that Mike Duggan is running as a write-in candidate, he cannot only become one of the top two finalists in the primary, but could win in the November General Election.
The demographics of those surveyed appear to be consistent with what the final voter turn-out will be.Of those surveyed:
- Approximately 87% are African Americans, 9% are white and 4% classify themselves as Hispanic, Asian,or something else other than White/Caucasian or African American.
- 59% percent are women, 41% are men.
- 81% are Democrats,4% are Republican while another 15% are consider themselves Independents or another party.
- 41% said they voted for Freeman Hendrix in the 2005 General Election while 47% voted for Kwame Kilpatrick.
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